Saudi Arabia is considering how to move substantially more oil across its territory rather than through exposed Gulf shipping routes. Speaking at the World Petroleum Congress in Riyadh on 12 October, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said the kingdom could raise pipeline crude-export capacity toward 10 million barrels per day over two to three years. That is an export-routing objective, not an announcement that Saudi production will rise by 10 million barrels a day. The difference is essential when the value of infrastructure lies in resilience during maritime disruption rather than in expanding the size of the oil field.
There are two different timetables
The minister described a short-term option to convert a domestic gas pipeline temporarily for crude transport, potentially adding as much as 1.2 million barrels per day of export capacity within seven to eight weeks. He said the gas line would have to return to its original service by May 2027 after cleaning, ahead of summer demand. A separate longer-term investment programme would improve pumping stations and the East-West network, with as much as 3 million barrels per day of additional capacity envisaged. Those figures should not be presented as capacity already commissioned. Reuters reported on 6 October that flow through the East-West system had reached 5.8 million barrels per day after disruption, a statement about operating flow at that time rather than the proposed future design limit.
A bypass is only as reliable as its terminals
The East-West corridor connects Saudi oil-producing areas with Red Sea export infrastructure, including Yanbu, allowing some shipments to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. But a pipeline does not eliminate maritime risk. Tankers must still load safely at the destination port, and crude quality, storage, berth capacity and onward shipping routes must match refinery demand. A temporary gas-line conversion also carries an opportunity cost: gas transport capacity is diverted until the line can be cleaned and returned to service. The economics therefore depend on how often the alternative route is used, what shipping and insurance costs it avoids and how much investment is needed to maintain flexibility. A design target of 10 million barrels per day would be strategically important even if average throughput remains lower.
Financing, commissioning and actual flow are the scorecard
The next verifiable milestones are engineering plans, contracted upgrades, pumping-station delivery, the temporary conversion's start date and independent throughput data at Yanbu. Investors should separate the existing system's maximum capacity, observed flow, announced additional capacity and the volume of crude actually exported. If the conversion is reversed by May 2027, its contribution should not be counted permanently in the long-run total. Saudi Arabia is buying optionality in a volatile shipping environment. Whether that optionality is worth its capital and operating cost will be demonstrated by reliability and usable throughput, not by a single ministerial target.
How to use this analysis
Energy comparisons depend on physical units, utilisation and contract terms. Capacity describes a maximum under stated conditions, while production records what occurred. Revenue adds price and customer terms. Those measures should remain separate, particularly when projects have long commissioning schedules and public support. Saudi evidence should distinguish citizen and total-population measures, public-programme targets and recorded outcomes, and oil from non-oil activity.
Source and verification note
The reporting base for this article is Reuters: Saudi energy minister outlines 10 million bpd pipeline ambition, 12 October and Reuters: East-West pipeline flow update, 6 October. The link is provided to the source page or release so readers can check the reporting period, definitions and later revisions. Figures are not extended beyond the source's geographic or institutional scope, and forecasts remain labelled as expectations until an official release records the outcome.