The Strait of Hormuz is no longer functioning like a normal high-volume energy corridor, but Gulf producers have built increasingly elaborate workarounds to keep crude moving.
What the evidence establishes
Reuters analysis says ship-to-ship transfers near Oman reached roughly 2.5 million barrels per day in September, up from 1.4 million bpd in August. Very large crude carrier costs have risen sharply, with some freight costs exceeding $30 per barrel. Separate shipping data show visible transits remain a fraction of pre-war levels.
The commercial reading
The resilience of physical oil flows should not be confused with normal market functioning. Shuttle tankers, transfers, discounts and alternative export routes can preserve volumes, but they consume vessels and raise transport costs. The result is a less efficient Gulf export system whose cost is shared among producers, traders and ultimately buyers.
What to watch next
Watch daily Hormuz transits, ship-to-ship transfer volumes, Saudi East-West pipeline flows, Yanbu loadings, tanker availability and freight rates.
How to use this analysis
Energy comparisons depend on physical units, utilisation and contract terms. Capacity describes a maximum under stated conditions, while production records what occurred. Revenue adds price and customer terms. Those measures should remain separate, particularly when projects have long commissioning schedules and public support.
Source and verification note
The reporting base for this article is Reuters analysis: Hormuz shuttles keep oil flowing at high cost. The link is provided to the source page or release so readers can check the reporting period, definitions and later revisions. Figures are not extended beyond the source's geographic or institutional scope, and forecasts remain labelled as expectations until an official release records the outcome.