Gulf Employers Expect AI to Change Hiring Without Ending Headcount Growth

The cleanest AI-and-jobs narratives are proving the least useful. Gulf Business Review's 2026 audience research shows companies can reduce hiring for particular tasks while still adding employees overall. That is what happens when automation changes the mix of work inside a growing business rather than simply shrinking the business.

Forty-three per cent of respondents said AI had already reduced the need to hire for certain roles. Another 28% said it had not yet done so but they expected it to. Yet only 21% said AI had directly resulted in positions being eliminated.

Hiring demand and automation can rise together

The forward-looking responses make the point more clearly. Fifty-five per cent expect AI ultimately to increase total employment at their company, including 17% expecting a significant increase. Twenty per cent expect a decrease and 25% little or no change.

Over the next 12 months, 37% expect headcount to rise by 1% to 10%, 27% by 11% to 20%, and 15% by more than 20%. In other words, 79% expect some headcount growth even while a large share is already using AI to avoid hiring for particular work.

This is a composition story

A company can automate first-line support, document handling or routine analysis and still hire more salespeople, engineers, data specialists, product managers and operational staff as it expands. AI changes the marginal role the company needs next; it does not automatically determine the total size of the workforce.

The survey supports that interpretation in another question: 35% slightly favour AI capability over years of experience when hiring and 18% strongly favour it, while 28% weight the two equally. The premium is shifting toward people who can work effectively with AI inside a domain, not merely people with the longest CV.

The Gulf has structural reasons to pursue both AI and hiring

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are investing simultaneously in digital infrastructure, new industries and services. That creates demand for specialised technical staff even as businesses automate routine work. IMF research has argued that GCC economies are relatively well prepared for AI and that Saudi Arabia in particular could see meaningful productivity gains, while also warning that specialised AI talent remains a constraint.

The result is a labour market in which scarcity can coexist with automation. AI may reduce the number of junior hires required for one process while increasing demand for engineers, governance specialists and commercially experienced operators elsewhere.

What to watch instead of headline job-loss numbers

The most informative measures over the next two years will be hiring mix, entry-level vacancy rates, wages for AI-capable domain specialists, internal mobility and the amount of work redesigned around smaller teams. Gross headcount alone can hide a large occupational shift.

GBR's survey is audience research, not a representative labour-force study, and the GCC source export does not include a reliable sample-size field. The findings are therefore best treated as a signal of employer expectations. Official labour-market and company-level data will determine whether those expectations become reality.